2024 Market Insights
Before we look into where we are going, let’s quickly review where we were in 2023.
The 2023 Recap
Rising interest rates
A 14.8% decrease in homes sold on MLS from the year prior
A decrease of 23.2% looking at our five year average
Waterloo region 2023 sales saw its lowest point in over two decades.
So to say the least, the market was a slow one.
Looking at December 2023 specifically, compared to 2022 and November 2023:
We ended the year with the average price of detached homes at almost $850K, up 2.6% from last December and down 4.7% from November 2023
Average prices of towns ended at just over $617K up to.8% from last year and up 1.2% from November
Average prices of apartment style condos were just over $490 which was a 5% increase from last year and a 9% increase from November
The average number of days on market in 2023 was 19 versus 14 in 2022
If you are looking for the most affordable places to live in The region of Waterloo, you should know we are divided up into 3 cities and 4 townships. In December 2023 the lowest average prices was from Kitchener among the cities and North Dumfries among the townships.
Now let’s chat about 2024:
First, we expect to see interest rates drop, we are already seeing that in fixed rates. That could free up some more room in peoples affordability and take people off the fence who have been sitting and waiting for it.
Second, we will see the start of up to 2.2 million mortgage renewals in 2024-2025 which is almost half of all outstanding Canadian mortgages. These people could be going from a fixed rate of high 1 and low 2s to rates that are more than double. I have done the math on my mortgage, and even though I have spent the last 5 years paying it down, my payment will go up with the new rates come my renewal.
Third, in Ontario, sellers can now have open bidding. If you were selling your house prior to December 1st 2023 and you had multiple offers, all those buyers were blind bidding so you could see offers come in with over $100,000 between them. Now the seller has the option to keep it blind, open it up or do a mix of both - and they get to choose what they disclose and when.
Lastly, in the last 5 years, many of us have seen how caught up people can get in a crazy sellers market and the repercussions of it. I have really seen lenders get more strict on appraisals perhaps as a consequence. In the last year, we saw conditions come back, homes listed at market value, and less bidding wars. So we’ve kind of come full circle going into 2024.
Keeping those 4 things in mind, I do think we will see an increase in activity and prices this year, but because rates are still higher and people are living with consequences of rush decision making in 2021 for instance, plus the fact that we could see exactly the amount we need to win a bidding war - I do not believe it will get as out of control as it was.
I would love to know what your goals are for 2024 so I can give you custom predictions and advice! Reach out today to chat and to tap into some amazing resources I made to help you move to or within the Region of Waterloo!